Trump Loses the Gerrymander War

[00:00] Pod Save America is brought to you by SimpliSafe. [00:02] We're big fans of transparency here, especially when it comes to the fine print that usually only benefits the big guys. That's why we're such proponents of a security system that doesn't try to trap you in a contract that's longer than a term in the House of Representatives. With SimpliSafe, there are no long-term contracts or hidden cancellation fees. SimpliSafe earns your business by keeping you safe, not by trapping you in a contract. You can easily customize a system that's right for your home at SimpliSafe.com. [00:32] We'll be right back. [00:47] are ready to take action. That's what you always say. That's right. They're ready to take action. I set up a SimpliSafe, incredibly easy to do. Once it's set up, you're like, boy, [00:57] That was easy, and it's still reliable, and the customer support is great. You'll be glad you have it because of peace of mind. [01:02] We love peace of mind here. We've partnered with SimpliSafe to offer an exclusive discount to our listeners. Right now, you can get 50% off your new system by visiting simplisafe.com slash crooked. That's half off at simplisafe.com slash crooked. There's no safe like SimpliSafe. [01:16] My name is Dr. Corey Howe, also known as Shred Doctor. Cocoa Beach being the origination of the word Stoke, 100% believe that. We have some of the most world champion surfers originating here. We have so many outdoor water sports activities. We have space shells launching off into the atmosphere. Suns always shine and people are nice and happy. This is where everyone comes to vacation and live. I mean, what else is there not to be stoked about? Cocoa Beach, the birthplace of Stoke.

[01:46] Big color, bigger savings. Sherwin-Williams Super Sale is here. Get 40% off paints and stains June 5th through the 11th with prices starting at $30.89. Whether you're refreshing your interior or exterior, we've got the colors to bring your vision to life. And with delivery, getting everything to your door is easier than ever. Shop online to have it delivered or visit your neighborhood Sherwin-Williams store. Click the banner to learn more. Retail sales only. Some exclusions apply. See store for details. Delivery available on qualifying orders. [02:16] you [02:38] Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Look at us. [02:41] we're here in D.C. Back where it all started. Back where it all started. Beautiful city. Beautiful city. They haven't started work on the arch yet. No. Did you check out the ballroom? I was just, when we were landing, I was excited to see that the monument was still standing. I watched the monument. Because I didn't know. That's good. Yeah, the Lincoln Memorial painted MAGA red. Yeah, right. So, yeah, everything looks normal so far. All right. On today's show, we're going to talk about the latest developments in our new forever war and why it could take six more months [03:11] moves even after the war ends. We'll also cover Democrats' big win in Virginia in the state of the redistricting wars, which Republicans are starting to regret. We'll check in on our boy Cash Patel, who can't quite shake the J. Edgar Boozer allegations. Just a top-notch, top-ten, all-time positive American title. I would say, I don't know who came up with it. They're all on the line, so someone knows, but we're not with them. Lovett's saying it was him. It definitely was not Lovett.

[03:40] That's all I care about. [03:41] And why the biggest national security threat that we face... [03:45] Maybe sugar daddies. [03:48] Then our friend Mark Leibovich of the Atlantic joins us here in studio to talk about the California governor's race in this town's Super Bowl, the White House Correspondents' Dinner. This weekend. Why we're here. We couldn't stay away. [04:01] And... [04:02] with Trump in attendance for the first time. [04:05] as president and the first time since 2011. What happened in 2011? We're not going to get into that again. If you're listening to this show and you don't know the story of 2011... [04:14] then you have not paid attention. Crooked Con's coming back, Dan. Right here in this city. Washington, D.C.? Washington, D.C., November 5th through 7th. It's going to be right after the midterms. Is it being held in the ballroom? Maybe. Maybe. Yeah, we're scoping it out if it's done by then. We're going to have more panels, more speakers, more opportunities to connect with people who care about politics. Plus, there's going to be live tapings of Love It or Leave It, [04:40] Pod Save America, and Strict Scrutiny. So, head to CrookedCon.com, sign up for updates, including ticket release dates, lineup announcements, and a lot more. Also, [04:51] Huge news for campaigns, candidates, and anyone who wants to be super smart about politics. Take it away. [05:00] Yes, we'd end. Thank you, John. So for years, we've heard from candidates. [05:06] staffers, organizers, that they are forced to turn to Pod Save America for political strategy and messaging guidance because they can't afford a pollster, a consultant. They're not getting support from the National Party. And, like, obviously it's very flattering that they –

[05:20] listen to us for advice, but it also is a pretty shameful indictment of how the whole system works. The fact that... [05:26] The people who need the most help. [05:28] get the least help. The fact that the best blow consultants, the best pollsters, only work for the candidates who have the most money, who tend to be the candidates who need the least help. So to try to fill that gap, I'm launching a brand new product called MessageBox Pro. This is a consulting subscription service for people who work at all levels of politics, whether you're running for office, you're working for a campaign, you work for a politician, you're just organizing to defeat MAG and protect democracy in your community. Subscribers get... [05:52] Weekly strategy memos from me, polling guidance, data-driven insights, and advice on how to get your message out in this crazy media environment. [06:01] For more information, go to messageboxpro.com. You can sign up there. The first 250 people who sign up get lock-in a special founding member price forever. [06:12] www.messageboxpro.com. [06:15] This is a project I'm very excited about. Is there a co-host discount? [06:21] No. I'm just wondering. I'm kind of interested. Maybe I can comp you. Okay. All co-hosts will be comped. Okay, good. Good. Well, that's exciting. Everyone check it out. You get to have weekly strategy memos from Dan. Wow. I mean, that's pretty great. It's a pretty exciting product, Dan. Thank you, John. I'm really excited you're doing this. We've been talking about this for a while, so I'm glad you got it off the ground. Messageboxpro.com. [06:49] the

[06:50] Notorious. Yes, we crooked.com slash. Yes, we did. That's another option. But that's also to donate to your future races. No, no, no, no. Okay. All right. Let's get to the news and what seems to be a stalemate in a war that's been going on for seven weeks and counting. Quick reminder, it's now been 43 days since Trump first declared victory in Iran. Now we are on week seven and counting. So we're recording this mid afternoon East Coast time on Thursday, a little earlier than usual. And Trump is about to do an event in the Oval Office. [07:19] where he may take questions. Our producers are monitoring the situation. Reid, you're just going to give us a wave. Just a big wave in case there's... He's going to throw his sweet green bowl at us. It's going to be big news, though. Big news. All right, but for now... [07:33] Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday, didn't put a new deadline on it, and it's unclear if we still have a ceasefire because then Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. has seized a couple tankers, including on Thursday a tanker of Iranian oil, and there's still no word on whether there will be another round of negotiations. [07:53] J.D. Vance just sitting at the airport waiting to get the call so he can jump on a plane. Trump is still posting through it. This is all just today. Claiming that, quote, we have total control of the strait, which we obviously don't, as evidenced in part by his next post, that he's ordering the Navy to, quote, shoot and kill any boat laying mines there, which he claims is already happening, but wants it to continue at a, quote, tripled up level. [08:19] That's technical speak. Yeah, tripled up level. He also shared two posts from warmonger Mark Thiessen, my predecessor at the White House, that suggested he should kill the Iranians.

[08:32] who don't want to deal, [08:34] So he said there's a couple of factions. There's the want to deal faction and the don't want to deal faction. And Thieson said he should kill all the Iranians who don't want to deal. But also... [08:43] The Trump doesn't need a deal. [08:46] So there's a few problems there. Meanwhile, this is all after the Pentagon reportedly told Congress in a classified briefing. This is from The Washington Post that it could take. [08:56] six months [08:57] to clear the strait from the date the war ends. [09:02] So if the war ends tomorrow, we're looking at six months until the strait is open again and global energy supplies go back to normal and the price of gas comes down and oil and all the other – and the supply shock and all the other problems that have befallen the global economy because of this. So – [09:19] Looks like the administration is trying to spin the ceasefire extension as a temporary act of mercy. They're saying on background three to five days to, quote, allow the Iranians to get their shit together. This is what they told Axios. And Trump keeps threatening that huge strikes will resume. [09:36] How eager do you think? [09:37] he actually is to restart this war. Well, he's given, I think it is now five deadlines. A lot of deadlines. And in every single one of them, he's extended the deadline without getting a single thing he wanted. So I'm getting the sense that he does not want to restart this war. [09:51] But he really wants the strait to be open and the war to be over and it to be seen as an [09:58] unalloyed American victory. But all of this is an impossible task. One tough circle to square. Yes, it is an impossible circle to square. So we are stuck in this place. And every day that we...

[10:07] where we're still in the stalemate, because really stalemate is not a term you want to use with a war in the Middle East. No. I've been there before. [10:15] Every day that The Stelmate continues is... [10:20] Makes it worse for the U.S. and the global economy. The oil shock gets worse. The shortage gets worse. I think, you know, if you read what people like sort of experts in the oil industry say is that the markets, the political conversation is dramatically underestimating how bad this is and what the what the medium term consequences are. Like Europe is headed towards a potential jet fuel shortage. Yeah. Fonza canceled like 20,000 short flights already. It's really bad. [10:50] real implications for [10:51] for people's daily lives, not just gas prices, but every single part of their life, the strength of the economy, overall inflation, the cost of food, and, you know, [11:00] From the day you end the war, you have six months until you can get to something hopefully resembling normalcy and begin to unwind all of this. [11:08] And we have no idea when that day one will be. And per usual, Trump is making his problems worse because he has made it clear to the Iranians and the world that he's horny for a deal. [11:21] which the Iranians know. [11:24] which is why they're going to make it [11:26] harder for him to get a good deal that he can feel confident about. Um, [11:33] Which he also needs to avoid seeming weak because he can't seem weak. So it's just and you can tell that, like, the Iranians are sort of showing a little more confidence in the way they're posting and talking about this. And also they're like the clear, like the IRGC is in charge and the hardliners. And it's a long New York Times piece today about the new Ayatollah. And he is apparently still very injured and very ill.

[12:03] It's a board of directors, and the new Ayatollah is the chairman of the board, but all the generals and all the IRGC people have almost just as much of a say or certainly more of a say than they did when his father was in charge. So that's probably not good for world peace or getting a deal. Yeah, it's just there are such different incentive structures here. All the IRGC cares about is staying in power. [12:33] on their own people. And it's not like they have elections coming up. Yeah, there is. There's no one sitting at IRGC headquarters worried about the generic ballot right now. Right. And they know that Donald Trump just wants out, both because he's worried about the politics and because he has no attention span. And it's just not clear what he could do to change the calculus here because all he can do is bomb more things. What we all have to hope is that they end up doing a deal that's probably better for the Iranians than we would have hoped. [13:03] And Trump pretends that it's some great deal and tries to take credit for it. But at least it ends the war like that. That to me is now the best possible outcome because there is no outcome where we get a great deal. No, I mean, the fundamental challenges here is. [13:16] Anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it. Yeah. Yeah. That's about where we are right now. You see that Pete Hegseth fired the Secretary of the Navy, which is an interesting thing to do here in the middle of the biggest naval blockade. [13:32] operation in decades. Another heroic background quote to Axios, quote, he didn't understand he wasn't the boss. His job is to follow orders given, not follow the orders he thinks should be given.

[13:43] The only wars that Pete Hegseth can win are bureaucratic ones. [13:50] Doesn't seem great. [13:51] They're losing the Secretary of the Navy. It seems like this guy went too because he was having trouble with Hegseth and fighting with Hegseth. And part of it was based on Hegseth wants to eliminate the woke army, the DEI agenda. And so he was trying to make sure he looked at every application for a possible job and scrubbed social media to make sure there were no signs of woke or DEI anywhere in the resume or in the social media. So it doesn't seem like that's a good thing. [14:21] So, again, in the middle of a war. Yeah, we keep getting rid of people who know what they're doing, replacing them with people who don't. Senate Democrats brought up a war powers vote on Wednesday. Republicans voted it down now for the fifth time this year. [14:33] What else can or should Democrats be doing? It seems like they're just going to keep bringing these votes up. It seems like each time they are getting like more Republicans who are at least considering voting for the war powers resolution. [14:51] if the warp house resolution does anything. [14:54] The president can only be at war for a certain number of days, and that's the time limit's coming up there, and so now they're trying to figure out a way to get around that. Yeah, I'm always torn on the War of Power of Resolution thing. [15:05] thing as a tactic here because one thing we've known from some of the polling we've seen is that people are very, very against this war. They don't understand why we're in it. They hate the costs of it. They think it's stupid. The least effective argument is the process one.

[15:19] Yeah. [15:20] But... [15:22] constitutionally, from a governor's perspective, the process one is very important. Like that is a case that should be made. And even if we were to pass it, Trump, we're not going to pass with a veto-proof majority. Right. Right. So it sort of is what it is. And so we have to think about [15:34] using these votes to put as many Republicans on the record as for Trump's illegal war as possible. I have noticed that all the talk about [15:43] the supplemental war funding has kind of died down. Remember it was going to be $200 billion. And then someone said, maybe it's closer to 100 billion that the white house is going to ask for. But I don't see that, that legislation getting fast tracked anytime soon. Do you? Well, I just don't know what the immediate urgency is like, [16:03] What we'll push this is. [16:05] It's very, very... [16:07] the Pentagon wants something. The Pentagon is very, very good at ensuring that everyone knows they want it. And so, if they actually... [16:15] So Trump and Russ Vogt have made a mockery of all sort of budgeting laws, so they could be robbing from all sorts of places to avoid this. But at some point, they're going to need that money and they're going to have to go to Congress later. [16:27] for it, and then that becomes the most important thing [16:31] most politically salient vote people will take on this war? I would bet their calculation is, he's trying to get a deal. He's trying to get us out of this. Let's just try to wait to ask for the funding until the war is over. And then we can say it has nothing to do with the war. The war is over. This is just to refill our munitions, which are running low. And now there's reporting from Alex Ford in the Wall Street Journal that munitions are so low that if we ever had to go to war with, say, China, that we wouldn't be able to have enough munitions.

[17:01] is the later you wait, the closer you put it to the election. [17:05] Right, we're in... [17:06] Late April now, Congress is going to take, like, the last thing, the worst possible scenario for Republicans is they have to deal with this in September right before the election. Yeah, as gas prices are, like, over $5 a gallon at that point. [17:27] Pod Save America is brought to you by Aura Frames. Looking to upgrade your Mother's Day gift beyond the usual flowers? Look no further than Aura Frames. [17:34] Look, look, you can do the obvious thing and get flowers, which are fine. They're nice, but they obviously die. [17:40] You know, and then that's garbage. Or you can get something that lasts forever. It has family photos in it and or a frame free unlimited storage. You can add as many photos and videos as you want. You can preload photos before it ships. You keep adding from anywhere, anytime. [17:53] You can personalize your gift. You can add a message before it arrives. The gift box is included. Every frame comes packaged in a premium gift box with no price tag. Share your photos and videos effortlessly. Download the free Aura app or text photos straight to your frame. Imagine if you get your mother a beautiful frame from Aura and you load it up with... [18:11] 100 family photos, just beautiful family photos, and then one picture of [18:18] of [18:19] Bill Cosby.

[18:42] Puts of America is brought to you by Nutrafol. Good hair days do more than we give them credit for. When your hair feels healthy, you show up differently. You feel more confident, more relaxed, and you're not constantly checking the mirror. Nutrafol supports hair health from within and delivers results over time. So your hair becomes something you enjoy, not something you stress about. Nutrafol is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand. And it's the number one hair growth supplement brand personally used by dermatologists. [19:12] sport and clinically tested. I love Nutrafol. I'm on it right now. I tell you something. We got a fan. I started a couple months ago and it says it takes a couple months. I'm doing Nutrafol and red light therapy. And I have to say together, I'm definitely noticing a difference. Like I genuinely am using Nutrafol. I've been using it for a couple months. And look, I- Is that Nutrafol on your head or is that a fast growing tree? Right. Who knows? But I'm genuinely like, oh, cool. Cause I'm getting married and I want to have a full luxurious head of hair for the wedding. And it's really working. [19:42] and continuously indefinitely. You know, I've already done some other bigger interventions and at some point you run out of hair to put different places. [19:52] You know? It's not a one-size-fits-all approach. Nutrafol offers multiple formulas for men and women tailored to different life stages, like postpartum or menopause, or you're just about to get married at 43. Okay. F*** you. That's a life stage. [20:09] You know, listen, it took a little longer than expected, but that's right. You're younger than me. That's nice. And lifestyle factors such as plant-based diet, so you get support that's actually right for you. Adding Nutrafol to your daily routine is easy.

[20:22] needed with automated deliveries and free shipping to keep you on track. Let your hair become one less thing, taking up space in your head and see thicker, stronger, faster growing hair with less shedding in just three to six months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, Nutrafol is offering our listeners $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping when you visit Nutrafol.com and enter promo code crooked. That's Nutrafol.com spelled N-U-T-R-A-F-O-L.com, promo code crooked. [20:48] All right, let's talk about the great news of the week. Democrats won the Virginia referendum to redraw the state's congressional maps, which will likely net Dems another four seats in the Commonwealth and hold 10 of the 11 congressional seats there. It is now going to be a 10-1 split in Virginia, Democrats and Republicans. Trump said the election was rigged, obviously, called on the courts to fix this travesty of justice. That was his quote. [21:18] which was expected. This judge had blocked the referendum earlier. And Attorney General Jay Jones vowed to appeal. Now Virginia Supreme Court will decide. Republicans and right wing media joined Trump in bitching about the results. And Democrats aren't feeling too guilty. Here's Jesse Waters, Jessica Tarlov and AOC. You guys have been gerrymandering for quite some time. You're very good at it. Trump tried his hand at it. [21:45] Did it in Texas. Got some good results in it. You guys have just been running the table. Can you stop? Can you slow down? No.

[21:53] All gas, no brakes. What do you make of Republicans saying that, Virginia? You guys getting Democrats getting 10 minutes for months? [22:05] First of all, what do you think about the Republican complaining? If you could expand on wah, wah, wah. [22:13] Because I saw it from a lot of Republican strategists who I think know better. Many of them live in Virginia, as many Republican strategists and Democratic strategists do in [22:23] but they are very upset and when you say well Texas started it they're like well no Democrats started it first before Texas and other cycles and in New York they did it in 2020 and all this fucking bullshit yeah okay so [22:39] What is it the Republicans love to say? [22:42] Fuck around and find out because that's exactly what happened here. But let's just – That's what Hakeem Jeffries said. Did he say that to him? And he actually said fuck. Did he? Yeah. That's very authentic. Good for him. Very authentic. [22:53] Honestly, good for him. We should – Hakeem Jeffries gets a lot of credit here. He crushed it. He absolutely – Republicans started this redistricting war. Democrats could have crawled into the fetal position. Gavin Newsom stepped up. [23:07] Hakeem Jeffries stepped up. Hakeem Jeffries... And he did work. He went to these states, went to these legislatures, pushed people. It was a lot of behind-the-scenes work, but he did work. Virginia would not have happened without Hakeem Jeffries, for sure. So he gets a ton of credit here. But let's just be clear about this. [23:22] In 2021, there was a vote.

[23:26] to [23:27] Ban gerrymandering. [23:29] Every single Democrat voted for it. [23:32] Every single Republican voted against it. [23:34] One party supports a national ban on Germany because the only way to do this is a national ban. One party supports it to the Democrats. One party opposes it to the Republicans. What they don't like here is they started a dumb fight. [23:45] And they lost it. Yeah, I just think... [23:48] we should be consistent in the positions we hold on reform that sort of, you know, reforms corruption and rigged system and gives people more of a voice. And like, yeah, we're foreending gerrymandering everywhere. And if the Republicans don't like the bill from 2021 that would end partisan gerrymandering for whatever reason, because some of them have some problems with the way it's been, tell us what you want to do. Give us a bill that would and then maybe we can negotiate on it. [24:18] and, oh, Democrats are spending money. No, we want to overturn Citizens United. We want to get rid of money in politics. Do you also? Then let's do it. Like, I think that there should be term limits and maybe age limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices. Great, let's do it. I think we should get rid of the filibuster. Everyone's like, oh, well, now the Republicans, would you be pissed if the filibuster wasn't there? Yeah, I would be annoyed that they maybe could pass a few more things, but, like, I believe the filibuster is bad, and so I believe that it is bad no matter what. [24:48] Like, I just think that maybe Republicans could be consistent for once on the reforms they support and when they support them. Yeah, I mean, there's two things there. One is consistent. The other one is whether Democrats should be required to unilaterally disarm Republicans.

[25:01] when things remain legal. And the answer is, of course not. That is an absurd fucking position. I do think in a different era, and maybe even the first Trump era, Democrats would not have responded as aggressively to this. Because we do believe gerrymandering is wrong. We would have thought that, not everyone, I don't think you and I would have thought that, but I think many in the party would have thought that it is a dirty pool, two wrongs don't make a right, we should not do it. [25:31] And finally, of the Trump era, which is you if you are going to take on fascism, you have to be willing to fight fire with fire. You have to use everything Democrats are doing is. [25:40] Legal. It is a maximum use of allowable political power. The way to fix unfair rules is to fix the rules, not just sit there and let your ass get beat. [25:52] So last year, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia beat her opponent by 15 points. The referendum passed by three. It's a 12-point swing. Why do you think it was so close? A couple of reasons here. One... [26:07] So the most obvious comparison point is the California – [26:13] measure that passed in November. That passed by about 30 points. This is three points. California is more democratic than Virginia, but it's not 10 times more democratic than... Right. And if it passed by 30 points, isn't it like a... [26:27] Isn't it like a D plus 20 state usually? [26:29] Yeah, and Kamala Harris won Virginia by 5.8 points. But some reasons why it was closer. One, this was a very Republican turnout was quite good. It was actually as the big 2021 levels.

[26:45] When we lost. Yeah, when Glenn Youngkin was elected. [26:50] Republicans did mount a very good campaign here. They actually used Barack Obama in their ads. Both sides used Obama in their ads. The no side used Obama, footage of Obama talking about what you were mentioning was bad. [27:02] in their ads and then the yes side used more recent footage of Obama saying pass this amendment. [27:07] Smarter than no side. And they spent real money. [27:11] Less money than the yes side. The other issue here that made it closer was independence. [27:18] so um [27:20] Independence in the last Washington Post poll that was a couple weeks before the election had independence at... [27:28] Plus 10 on the no side. [27:30] which is a huge swing from Stamberg, who won them by more than 20 points in 2025. And that kind of makes sense, because if you're an independent who is... [27:42] upset with Trump. Maybe you voted for Youngkin in 2021. Maybe you voted for Spenberg in 2025, probably Trump in 2024. [27:48] And you're mad at Trump. [27:50] You see this a process oriented anti pro gerrymandering amendment is something that you can. [27:57] still vote against. Yeah. And I don't know how the vote broke down in any of the individual districts, but I also think it is very understandable if you're an independent or if you're a Republican and you're deciding whether to come out and vote or not or vote. Like if you're in a district that's going to get gerrymandered and so you no longer really have a have a say and you're a member of Congress or you're not going to ever get a Republican. I can see why you vote against it. Yeah. It's like gerrymandering in general is bad and they shouldn't have sent us down this path.

[28:27] interesting, the one group that blew the doors off, and it's probably why Democrats won, was Asian American voters. Yeah, and black Americans too, I saw. I saw both Asian and the Asian vote and the black vote were quite high. Yeah. Because, again, especially black voters, like, know what it is to be gerrymandered. [28:46] Let's talk about what the redistricting war Trump started with Texas have wrought. When you add up all the states now that have redrawn their maps, Democrats [28:57] moment plus one in the overall count. The only state left is Florida, where the legislature has a special session scheduled for next week. But it's actually unclear if DeSantis changing the maps will net Republicans any additional seats. And some in the party are already feeling what Axios described as, quote, buyer's remorse. You bet. It's a bummer, huh? When asked if the redistricting effort was worth it, the chair of the NRCC, whose job it is to keep Republicans [29:27] quote, it's not for me to say because really it wasn't my decision. [29:33] And California Independent Kevin Kiley, who was a Republican and now caucuses with the Republicans still, told Axios, quote, I wish none of this had happened. Well, shit. Kevin Kiley lost his seat. Exactly. Yeah. [29:45] Did we win redistricting? Yes. I mean, yes, we won redistricting. You know, when Florida's done, it could come out that we are – [29:53] A seat or two behind. [29:54] Florida is interesting because

[29:59] So DeSantis could redraw the maps. One, just worth noting that partisan gerrymandering in Florida is illegal. According to the Constitution. To the Constitution. So he's going to need to. So that seems like a hurdle. It is a hurdle. I would say the legal reasoning of the Florida Supreme Court is nalleable. A bunch of Eileen cannons on that thing. Yeah. And so there's some thought that they're going to find a way to twist this, twist the illegal pretzel enough to get it done. But even if you draw it, right? Yeah, this is the problem. [30:29] pressure to do what Newsom did. [30:31] gets to Sanders' run for president in 2028, potentially. This is his chance to show himself to be... [30:38] you know, an important Republican player. But if he drew experts who look at this, think that anything more than adding two Republican seats puts them at real risk of what you call a dummy mander, which is where you draw the districts in a way that in a bad year, you lose a bunch of seats. So even I think even if DeSantis were to do it, he's going to get two seats at max. So you and we end up minus one for the whole thing. And what I think in the sense that we won, [31:08] Right. In mid-year. Right. Obviously, we're going to have to do this again after the 2030 census across in every in every state. But I think Democrats sent a message. [31:18] you know, a message to Republicans that if you try to do this, we will do it too. And you're not going to get that much. It's not going to be worth the juice will be worth the squeeze. So I, uh, a longtime Florida Republican consultant, uh, talking to Politico, he ran the numbers and that person ran the numbers and concluded the new map could net Republicans zero seats for the reasons you talked about. So, cause right now they hold a 20 to eight edge. And, um, cause basically there's nowhere left to cram Democrats without exposing safe Republicans to incumbents.

[31:48] Supreme Court doesn't, even if the Supreme Court allows it. The other thing that we've been waiting for is this Supreme Court case that could upend the map in the Voting Rights Act and basically say that all majority and minority districts can be redrawn, which would cost Democrats a bunch of seats. But I do think as of now, it's like too late. [32:11] It's too late for it to matter. [32:12] in 2026, apparently because two Southern states, which is where it would heavily affect, it affects Southern states more than anyone, two Southern states have already held primaries and candidate filing deadlines have passed in every state but Florida. [32:28] So even if the Supreme Court says that it matters for this election, they just can't. It would be mass chaos if they were to try to make it in place. For the states that already held primaries, you can't do anything. I guess the legislature could go try to change a filing deadline by passing legislation. Yeah, they'd have to pass new laws to basically do emergency elections to do it. You have new filing deadlines. People have to get signatures. [32:52] for those petitions, then you'd have to have a primary. Then the general election of members seems. And you have to draw the districts at some point in that too. So, seems fine for 2026. It is a problem, and it seems like the decision will be bad. But a problem for another day. [33:08] Enjoy that majority while we have it. For the next two years. The redistricting fiasco only adds to the Republicans' midterm woes. Trump and the party continue to hit new lows in polling.

[33:22] 33% and 32% respectively. So that's fun. As Sarah Longwell says, that's the Bush line right there. Cook Political Report released a new poll on Thursday, finding that just in swing districts that Trump won in 2024 by an average of two points, Democrats now hold a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. So that's pretty big. And in a new Fox poll, voters gave Democrats the edge over Republicans on inflation and the economy for the first time since 2010. [33:52] the generic ballot as well. How much hopium are you huffing these days? [33:56] I'm not really a hopium huffer per se. I know. That's why I'm asking. [34:01] The political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could have hoped for Democrats right now. And the poll that everyone should really be paying attention to is the Cook Political Report poll of 36. [34:13] The 36 districts that will decide the house, all of the... [34:16] toss up lean Republican, lean Democratic districts. And that was the one that was the... That's 6.36. And in that one, um, uh, [34:26] Democrats have big double-digit advantages on lowering prices and on the economy, which is something that has changed. Trump's unpopular, Republican base is divided. We have the opportunity before us, as we'll get to in this conversation. There are some hurdles to maximizing that opportunity, but this has the potential to be... [34:48] a... [34:49] 1994, 2006, 2018 style election for Democrats, where it's a massive increase

[34:55] Rebuke. [34:56] to the president, incumbent president, and the party in his party. And we've been talking about the House, but the headline of Nate Cohn's newsletter earlier this week was why a Democratic Senate, once unthinkable, is now a real possibility. What did you make of Nate's reasoning? Because he's not someone who just flies off the handle and just starts making predictions. We've made this case on Polar Coaster multiple times, and we've talked about it a little bit here, but it... [35:23] like once again as we've said [35:25] It is a tall order to get the Senate because you have to win two of four states that Trump won by double digits. [35:31] In addition to winning, holding all of our [35:33] the ones we have in Winnie Man in North Carolina. But the advantages we have are we have... [35:39] good candidates, very, very good candidates in three of those four. The four states of Iowa, which hasn't had its primary yet. So you have Mary Paltola in Alaska, top-notch candidate. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, top-notch candidate. James Tellerico in Texas, top-notch candidate. And there's some view... And Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Roy Cooper in North Carolina. And then Maine. Right, that's not one of the four. Maine's not a race anyone's already talked about on this podcast, so, you know, it's an under-the-radar race. [36:05] And the Democrats are over-performing in special elections. [36:09] by a margin that puts all those hits in play. [36:13] We need a plus 10, plus 11 environment to win those states, and we're seeing... [36:19] That's the sort of environment we're in right now. And then you can add some additional points to that because you have candidates who are going to perform better than a generic Democrat. Yeah, the paragraph in Nate's piece that really stuck out to me was talking about Sherrod and Mary Peltola. It says, in Ohio, Mr. Brown lost by 3.6 points in 2024. Ms. Peltola lost by around two points in Alaska.

[36:49] Or put another way, Mr. Brown and Ms. Peltola probably would have won re-election in 2024 if those contests had been held in this political environment. So that's pretty big. Echelon did a set of polls in the Senate states. Echelon, really good pollster run by Republicans, Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis-Anderson. They have Ossoff up 51-44 in Georgia. In Maine, they have Plattner up on Collins 51-45. [37:19] narrower 48 46 uh that's that main center risk yeah again i'm not gonna i'm just holding my tongue on that uh in iowa they have zach walls a two-point lead and uh josh turek a one-point lead so they do have a tiny lead inside the margin or in iowa and then the only tough one there is in ohio they have um shared down 51 45 and there's been a few ohio polls that have been kind of yeah uh troubling lately but we'll see um so speaking of patrick ruffini um uh who you know literally [37:49] What did you make of this case? [38:11] It's not crazy. [38:12] So the original point here is Democrats tout every time we overperform, and so he's going to go around and tout the one time we underperform. So, you know, sporting, I guess.

[38:24] What I think is, and I want to stipulate that a process-oriented ballot measure – [38:30] is very different than a candidate race, where the candidate... It's hard to hold... [38:37] the no on redistricting measure accountable for why you're angry at Trump. Yeah. And just to your point about ballot measures, [38:44] Let us not forget all the abortion ballot measures in deep red states that made us excited that maybe we were going to win this. Or minimum wage ballot. And they did not. [38:54] 25-point congressional performance in Georgia from three weeks ago or whatever it was is a – [38:59] better indicator than this. Also, it is certainly not evidence of an improving political environment. Trump's actually doing worse than he was before. The generic ballot is getting bigger, not smaller. And so I think it's a bit of a vacuum. What I think is true is that [39:16] What Republicans effectively did here is they nationalized that. [39:19] collection. [39:20] And when you nationalize an election, that gives them the chance to turn – [39:24] out [39:25] more of their voters. Because we are winning both through massive Democratic turnout, [39:30] persuasion and diminish Republican turnout. They're not going to drive down our turnout. They're probably not going to do a lot of persuasion, but the one thing they can do is drive their turnout up. And that is the difference between us winning a bunch of Trump plus 12 seats and us not winning Trump plus 12 seats. Yeah. And the other point I found compelling about Patrick's argument is he basically said in all these special elections that we've had so far, Republicans really haven't been able to sort of up the stakes and make voters feel like there's

[40:00] And in Virginia, they were able to do that because they made it seem like, you know, you could lose your voice and your district forever. And so once you get closer to the actual midterms and everything's nationalized, as you said, and the stakes are higher and they're spending, you know, all the money they have, which we're about to talk about, then you could get a closer environment than you've had in some of these elections, which I do think is possible. Republicans are going to get their shit together and sign my shit reform. That is going to happen. It always does. [40:30] Thank you. [40:30] They're not going to get Trump-level turnout. They're not going to get the turnout they want, but they're going to get better turnout than they've been getting in some of these special elections. And that is going to hold – that is not enough to save the House. It may be enough to save the Senate, but it's not enough to save the House. But it could hold down markets. The difference between Democrats picking up 15 seats and 25 seats. [40:57] This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all-in-one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace provides all the tools you need to promote and get paid for your services in one platform. Whether you offer consultations, events, or other experiences, Squarespace can help you grow your business. Squarespace offers a complete library of professionally designed and award-winning website templates with options for every use and category no matter where you start. [41:19] Your website is flexible to what you need with intuitive drag and drop editing, beautiful styling options, unrivaled visual design effects, on brand AI content and more ways to list what you offer. No experience required. Every dream needs a domain.

[41:30] Squarespace domains make it easy to find the best name for your business at one fair, all-inclusive price. No hidden fees or add-ons required. Every Squarespace domain comes with advanced privacy and security tools included to ensure your domain remains online and protected. [41:42] Plus, Squarespace provides everything you need to bring more of your dream to life. Whether that means building a website or adding a professional email service, don't wait to claim your name. Invest in your dream domain today. Head to squarespace.com for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch, go to squarespace.com slash crooked to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That's squarespace.com slash crooked. [42:03] This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Whether you're dealing with anxiety, depression, conflict in relationships, financial struggles, or simply need an impartial third party to help you deal with daily stress, BetterHelp is there to connect you with the support you need. BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the U.S. BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences, and their 12-plus years of experience and industry-leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with [42:33] at any time for their tailored recs. With over 30,000 therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over 6 million people globally. And it works with an average of 4.9 out of 5 for a live session based on over 1.7 million client reviews. You need therapy. You might not think you do, but you do. It always helps to talk to someone, even if you feel like you're doing great. You go talk to someone, you realize, oh, now I feel even better. We're therapy boys. We can vouch for that right here. When life feels overwhelming,

[43:03] That's better. [43:07] dot com slash PSA. [43:10] The New York Times reported this week that Republican Party political committees and allied groups currently have a massive $600 million financial advantage over the New York [43:21] the Democrats and their political committees and allied groups. The DNC's total cash is actually negative 4.5 million, which seems less than ideal. What do you make of the overall disparity there? [43:34] I would say one of the funniest things I've read in a long time is there was a – [43:39] A political reporter was passing along. I think it was passing along some of the spin from Democrats. And one of the spin from some of the Democrats about this was, well, we had all this money in 2024 and we lost anyway. So let's try running it back with no money. [43:54] In 2024, we had a candidate. [43:56] And we lost. Let's try no candidate. That's good thinking. [44:02] Here's what I'd say. [44:04] It is bad when the DNC... [44:07] has negative money. Okay, that is bad. It is not as consequential as I think people... [44:13] on... [44:15] the internet think [44:16] The DNC is not intimately involved in funding House races or Senate races. That is the DCCC and the DSCC. They have less money than the Republican counterparts, but that's a much narrower gap. And then where Republicans are truly crushing us, [44:28] is in super pack. [44:30] and non-profit money and dark money. And it's...

[44:33] And that's not even counting all of the hundreds of million dollars in the AI and crypto super PACs, which are mostly going to help Republicans. But where Democrats are crushing is our candidates are raising a lot more money than their candidates. And here's why that matters. [44:48] S- [44:49] Every dollar in... [44:51] Political fundraising is not equal. By law. [44:56] Television stations have to sell TV ads to TV. [45:00] campaigns run by candidates, the actual candidates, at what is called the lowest unit rate. [45:05] and [45:05] They have to do that. What the going rate is is what they charge a candidate. They gouge the living shit out of super PACs. So super PACs in the last 60 days before an election are paying... [45:15] two, three, four times the amount of the campaign. So let's take... [45:20] North Carolina, right? Where Cooper's raised a gazillion dollars. Let's say the Republicans plus Michael Watley's Republican nominee have... [45:28] $80 million. [45:30] that's equivalent to $20 million or $30 million of Roy Cooper's money. And so it is bad. We should have more money. It is bad that we are being outraged like this. But... [45:40] Give money to campaigns because those dollars go further. Which you can do by going to... [45:47] Go to saveamerica.com. And we'll tell you the best place to send your money. Don't want to be wasting any of it. [45:53] Thank you. [45:54] Seems like Trump is responding to the grim political outlook with his tried and true method of firing people. So he's reportedly considering forcing out more members of his cabinet. Laurie Chavez de Ramer, the labor secretary, resigned this week in scandal following Christine Noem and Pam Bondi. There's some speculation that Howard, I almost just said Nutlick. You can say that. Yeah, it's just it's natural now. Was he going to sue you? No, I guess maybe.

[46:24] Cash Patel, who's again not having the easiest time rebutting. Tulsi Gabbard too could be. Oh, I saw Tulsi Gabbard, yeah. Cash is having trouble rebutting the Atlantic story that did lead to his new nickname. [46:34] J. Edgar Puzer. Here's Patel and his boss, acting AG, Todd Blanche, responding to questions about the Atlantic story at a DOJ press conference on Tuesday. Let's play the clip. Can you say definitively that you have not been intoxicated or absent during your tenure as FBI director? [46:53] I can say unequivocally that I never listen to the fake news mafia. I'm like an everyday American who loves his country, loves the sport of hockey and champions my friends when they raise a gold medal and invite me in to celebrate. I've never been intoxicated on the job. Obviously, you've read the Atlantic Art Boom. That's now a subject of defamation lawsuit. I absolutely did not read that article. You're being extraordinarily rude. And I know maybe that's part of your profession, but please just stop. [47:23] Thank you. [47:24] after you were unable to log into the system. [47:26] Let's have a survey. [47:27] How many of you people believe that's true? It was never said, [47:31] It never happened. I was never locked out of my systems. [47:34] Anybody who says it. [47:37] Your lawsuit says the opposite. That was the key line from the reporter at the end. Meanwhile, the Times reported on Tuesday that the FBI began investigating one of the New York Times reporters, Elizabeth Williamson, after she broke the story last month that Patel has assigned FBI SWAT teams to protect his girlfriend and drive her to her concerts, because she is a country music sensation, and even a hair appointment.

[48:07] to the times that they had looked into Williamson's, quote, methods. [48:12] How hard is Cash Patel crushing it right now? What did you think of that press conference? [48:17] Oh, man. He's so... [48:21] uncomfortable in every situation. Yeah. He's just trying... [48:25] too hard at all times. Just an average everyday American who loves hockey. The lawsuit is helpful if you read the lawsuit because it does detail every allegation that is bad in the Atlantic piece and one helpful... [48:41] Just puts them all down. One through four. What was the Atlantic article so long you couldn't get through it? Yeah, no, it basically gave you the summary of it, right, in the lawsuit. And did essentially admit that the story about not being able to log into his email or his system was true. Do you think Trump gets rid of cash? I don't know. It's... [49:01] like even more than Bondi and Kristi Noem, I think that this would be seen as an admission of failure on Trump's part. Hmm. [49:09] Yeah, I just, I don't, I mean. I mean, first of all, Trump's, you know, never had a drink. He doesn't drink. And so I think he doesn't like the idea that someone is like running around drunk in the FBI. And not because he like, I think this is all through the prism of like, it makes Trump look bad. [49:26] Right. This is not about he doesn't care about like the safety and security of the country. And also what Trump wants is. [49:32] revenge on his enemies. And I mean, look, that that press conference was about indictments they brought against the Southern Poverty Law Center for it seems like crazy charges. But yeah. But so I think Trump's annoyed with that. So we'll see. I don't know. I would have said I said this on Tuesday show, but I would have said no, he'll keep him if it was before Bondi and known. But now that he's got those two out, I feel like he's got a taste of like, I fire someone. It's a story

[50:02] I know we don't predict on this show, but if you were on some sort of prediction market platform, would you... [50:13] put any of your hard-earned coin on the idea that Cash Mattel will not be in this role alone. [50:19] on Thanksgiving. [50:20] Yes. You think he'll be going on Thanksgiving? Yeah. I think they'll... [50:24] Yeah, because he definitely posts midterms. Not definitely, but I feel good about saying that. Your guess would be post midterms. Like if you told me by 4th of July, I'd be like, yeah. So you think post midterms, but definitely before the end of the year? [50:37] I think so. I would put money on that. Okay. I don't know how much money, but I'd put money on it. [50:42] Speaking of money and staff behaving badly, it is our solemn duty to discuss the case of Julia Varvaro, the 29-year-old who is serving as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security. Don't worry about it. That's not a big job. According to a former romantic partner who filed a formal complaint against Varvaro, she is actively on dating sites where, quote, sugar daddies agree to fund the lifestyles of younger women, including one called Seeking, where she offered, quote, mutually beneficial relationships. [51:11] According to the Daily Mail, the whistleblower slash X said he'd spend $40,000. [51:18] Not betting that on cash leaving. On gifts and travel for Vararo over the course of their three-month relationship, and he thinks she's under financial stress that constitutes a national security risk. Seems like the government agreed because she was placed on administrative leave after the story came out. As you know, Dan, our producers are constantly urging us...

[51:37] Not to kink shame on the show. [51:39] even though I continue to stress that kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government. What if... [51:52] If Threaty National Security is your kink. Well, then... Then what do you do there? I don't know. Ask the producers. Yeah, no. If people want to go on... [52:02] wherever this is, just to get some sugar daddies, that's fine. If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine. If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine. Jon Favreau, April 23rd, 2026. Just, you know, just when you have a government job, especially one that involves counterterrorism and homeland security, [52:21] I don't know. You don't want to put yourself in a position of being blackmailed. I have to admit, too, that when we were slacking about this, yesterday I was on my plane. I did not know about this story. It was all news to me. Then I went to my computer, and I was about to type in... [52:33] Sugar Daddy politics. And I thought better of it. There's a lot of pictures of this guy, of the Sugar Daddy with her that the Daily Mail has published to everyone else. And there's one right as we started recording, of course. Of course, our old friend Travis Helwig, who used to work here, sent it to me. And it's just the Sugar Daddy sitting next to her with a little sign that says, she's horny. [52:59] Again. [52:59] Fine. But if you're deputy secretary for counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security, maybe less fine. [53:06] Counterpoint. [53:07] On the scale of corruption in this administration, this is fucking quaint. Well, it's not corruption, necessarily. It's just... It's a risk.

[53:17] It's also a corruption risk. [53:18] Oh, I guess, yeah. But the reason that a normal FBI cares about all of this, the reason they all did interviews with all of us before our security clearance, stuff like that, is the idea is that if you have lied to the FBI or you have secrets that you haven't revealed or some foreign actor or someone can blackmail you and say, if you don't do this for me, I will reveal publicly what I know about you, that you go on this website or whatever, then you are more likely to do the thing that the foreign government or actor wants you to do. [53:48] That's the whole reason. Anyway, that's that. [53:53] That's that, Dan. [53:54] Sugar daddies. For dessert. Sugar daddies for dessert. That's what we got for today. All right. When we come back, we will talk to The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich about the shit show in California. [54:15] Pod Save America is brought to you by Z-Biotics Pre-Alcohol. Let's face it. [54:18] After a night with drinks... [54:20] I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is until I found pre-alcohol. Z-Biotics pre-alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works when you drink. [54:35] Alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's the blame for rough days after drinking. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre-alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. We love Z-Biotics. We all genuinely love it. It really does make the next day better. You always are glad you had it. You regret not taking it if you forget to take your little pre-alcohol Z-Biotics shot

[55:05] You're going to go have some drinks. You know, we're not as young as we used to be. [55:08] No, we're not. We never will be again. [55:11] And I don't go anywhere without my Zbiotics or else I will pay for it the next day and be mad at myself. [55:16] From the fairways in Augusta to the first pitch of baseball season and the start of festival circuits. Wow. What a life people are leading. April is a sprint of outdoor celebrations. Don't let her up next day. Keep you on the sidelines. Drink pre-alcohol to stay ahead of the game and make the most of every sunny Saturday. Go to ZBiotics.com slash Crooked to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Crooked at checkout. ZBiotics is backed with 100% money back guarantee. So if you're not satisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money. No questions asked. [55:46] for 15% off. [55:49] I've been doing this a long time in Cocoa Beach, and what still gets me stoked on these kayak tours are, one, the genuine joy that I see on my guest's face. When I'm able to find my guests, a manatee or a dolphin, and we get within an arm's reach of this awesome creature that they probably have never seen before, it's like giant smiles. Super tough not to be stoked when you've got all this beautiful water around you. I'm Ian Gibbs, and I'm a kayak tour guide in Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach, the birthplace of Stoke.

[56:19] you [56:23] Mark Leibovich, welcome to the pod. Great to be back with you guys. Good to see you here in DC. Thanks for letting us back in the town you rule, Washington DC. Yeah. Mayor of DC they call him. That's me. Yep. You know how all these parties I'm blacklisted from? I'm not even invited anymore. Really? Oh man. Yeah, you were blacklisted from ours until we just... I know. It was just like... That was unintentional unfortunately. It would be more fun. It's fine. It's alright. Just don't make... Well, I won't say it. [56:49] So you visited our fair state to report on what you and Mike Murphy lovingly refer to as the stupid circus, a.k.a. the California governor's race. Well, I guess I guess I kind of echoed him. Yeah, you repeated a few times, which I love. Mechanism. I think that's a good mechanism. Take the quote and echo from it. [57:07] You start the piece at a Little League game with Eric Svalwell, which you note, quote, felt consistent with the wholesome image that the campaign had been straining to project of late for reasons that would become clear soon enough. [57:19] It made me laugh out loud. [57:22] Did you get any bad vibes from your conversation with him? I got bad vibes from everything I had heard about him going into the conversation. This was one of those things where I'd spent the whole week just sort of touching as many bases as I could. And Swalwell basically lives here. I don't know where he lives now. But he lives in D.C. You know, back in the quaint days when he was getting heat for, like, not really living, spending that much time in California. And that was like a scandal for him.

[57:52] His kids are here. His wife is here. Oh, here in D.C.? Here in D.C. Yeah, yeah. He lived. I mean, he played a place on Capitol Hill. So at least he used to. So I don't know where he is now. But he is. Look, I'd heard everything. It was it was starting to perk up on social media. But that was kind of commensurate with whatever momentum he had, because there were there was definitely some movement to him. And Trump did him a huge favor. Well, I guess Patel did him a huge favor by releasing these sort of like completely ridiculous 10 year old file that. [58:22] no wrongdoing. So, you know, a great, a great way to get elected statewide in California is to be a big target of Donald Trump. And, you know, Adam Schiff proved that and Newsom. I mean, well, he certainly got Prop 50 probably over the finish line. So I thought so. But I was thinking, you know, how far does this have to go before? I mean, do I ask, do I bring this up at the end or do I wait till another for another conversation? But, you know, there is. [58:52] I mean, literally three days later, the implosion happened. But, I mean, you guys know there's a big gap between stuff that everyone talks about in reportable... [59:01] actionable stuff. And to the eternal credit to the San Francisco Chronicle first, later CNN, I mean, they nailed it down and looks like it was kind of tip of the iceberg. So I mean, I definitely [59:16] caught... I knew the reputation. I mean, he's a perfectly... [59:20] He can present. I mean, he's a thoughtful-ish guy. I mean, he's kind of Adam Schiff light in some ways, except without...

[59:27] With all the personal baggage. [59:30] So, yeah. And I knew something was coming. And they were clearly very self-conscious about it. And he was going over the top about his kid's Little League thing. I mean, he didn't, you know, understandably he wanted to keep his kids out of it. But it was a whole dad thing. He brought his wife along. She seemed very nice. So it was a little over the top. [59:49] In all your reporting, for people who aren't from California, haven't been paying attention to the race, [59:55] Why is this the field? [59:57] That's a great question. [1:00:00] Yeah. [1:00:01] I mean, the short answer is Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, who apparently everyone wanted to run. I'm not sure I'd buy that. I think there's a little bit of revisionist history there, but they're big names. They would have, if not cleared the field, definitely would have probably guaranteed 25%. Certainly Kamala would have maybe a little more. And George Clooney lives in France, as you know. Yeah, and Newsom's term limited. [1:00:31] you [1:00:32] Congress, members of Congress from the delegation, I think, you know, a couple of mayors. [1:00:39] I mean, there's not like a giant in the race. And I don't know if Kamala would have been that person, but there wasn't. So when you have just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways, two Republicans who are complete unknowns and... [1:00:54] I wouldn't think that electable in California under regular circumstances. They're just splitting their vote two ways. This is the math issue. So the Republicans, for anyone who doesn't know, there's a runoff system, jungle primary, top two finishers in the June 2nd primary, regardless of party, go on to the November election.

[1:01:24] No one's heard of, but they could get there in November and there could be no Democrat on the ballot. California is interesting because it's such a big state that it's almost impossible for anyone to be known in it. [1:01:33] And we just had this situation where our last three governors were Gavin Newsom, who was quite famous when he eventually won because of gay marriage. Jerry Brown, who had been governor before and was a national figure and run for president. Yep. And Arnold Schwarzenegger before that. Yep. And if you are a member of Congress. [1:01:51] It's so expensive to run for governor there. It's almost impossible for anyone to raise... Unless you're in a member of Congress with a national profile, which Swabble sort of had, it's impossible to raise the money to run there. And you just have to possibly get a name ID because we have a million media markets and no one can become famous. And so I think Padilla... [1:02:10] who was a statewide elected official before he became senator, even if he had run, he still would have fit into this mix because he's no more well-known than Javier Becerra, who had been attorney general and HHS secretary. That just made me think, not to get us off on a tangent, but don't you think that's the future or where we are now of national politics at the presidential level, too? It just seems like if you go back, the nominees of each party, who the president ended up being for the last 10, 15 years, just the way the attention economy works now. [1:02:40] famous, it is very hard to become famous out of nowhere in national politics on a national level. You have to be someone who is a master... [1:02:48] at attention. Right. Like Pete Buttigieg is the example of someone who became famous. He's the one example. So every other candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary finished in order of name ID at the outset other than Pete Buttigieg. No, but there's a wild card here, which is relevant to this race, which is Tom Steyer, who basically became known, got actually under debate stages in 2020, was actually finished seventh in New Hampshire in, I think, sixth in Iowa or something like that. He finished third in South Carolina, I think. Did he really? He danced with juvenile on stage at the end.

[1:03:18] remember about that yes um yeah i mean actually no one really remembers that joe biden was rescued in south carolina it's only it was only that no so tom styer i mean he basically he spent 140 million dollars so far in this race i mean it's really quite something i mean his strategy is spend as much money as possible put as many ads out there as possible and take the most liberal position possible and maybe that gets you home i mean swalwell wasn't was known but that's because of [1:03:48] nationalized political news and very trump-centric becerra um [1:03:53] He's one person surprisingly absent in your piece? Did they not give you an interview? [1:03:58] You know, so that was just, I mean, when I wrote it a week ago, he was nowhere. Right. And I kind of had to make, I mean, I had, you know, 2,500 words. I took about 4,000. [1:04:10] And, you know, still there's a lot. There's a lot to explain. There are a lot of characters. And Becerra seemed kind of back in the pack. And a lot of it's just logistical. I mean, I was out there to cover this debate. The debate was canceled. I had 72 hours. I basically could only stick around Southern California. He was in Northern California. [1:04:28] sometimes not a lot of rhyme or reason. He also might just not have wanted to talk to me, as Steyer and Porter didn't. Did he – which was a huge mistake on there. Not much. I mean, I really did – I'm trying to figure out – [1:04:42] The surge is real with Becerra. It's now been a number of polls where he's either tied for first or right after that. And the money has followed. And I'm just like, what happened? Yeah, well, I mean, the numbers thinned. I mean, Betty Yee, who was at 1%, she dropped out too. So, I mean, that's a number. But, I mean, Swalwell dropped. And there was a sense for at least a couple days that Steyer was just going to be, okay, he's going to inherit the wind here. And I think there was an immediate backlash.

[1:05:12] Instantly just offended by that. Just part of it is just sort of like the basic American ideal that has hostility towards buying an election, which is basically what this is. And also the guy doesn't particularly present all that well. And I think Becerra, if he ever got a first look, got a first and a half look or something like that. And he's quite credentialed. I mean, he was in the Biden administration. He was the AG in California. He's out there. But there was a debate last night. [1:05:42] Oh, well, he did. [1:05:43] What did you guys think of the debate? [1:05:45] from what you saw. Dan, what do you think? I saw highlights of the debate and I watched parts of it on 3XP this morning in my one hour to do this. Um... [1:05:54] I... [1:05:56] If Becerra had delivered a great performance, he could have essentially locked up a spot here, I think. But he did not. And so it leaves the – I think you leave the debate still wondering – [1:06:09] who the candidate is who could actually solidify in this field. Yeah. Because people were really hoping it was going to be Becerra. You know, and California races are largely funded by interest groups, the California teachers, the environmental folks, well, trial lawyers. And they would rally around him. Well, they could have, like they're looking for someone to rally around because Swallow had a lot of these labor endorsements. Some of, one of them has gone to Steyer since then. But it could, he could have seized the momentum and I'm not sure he did. Also not sure how many people watched any of it. So it's hard to say. I thought, [1:06:38] Matt Mahan was aggressive in a way that he needs

[1:06:42] to get attention, right? And so I thought he did well there. Steyer took a lot of incoming, which I was surprised, I guess, because he's still kind of the front runner. And so it was a lot of, like, people attacking Steyer. Becerra didn't seem like – I thought Becerra and Katie Porter were both kind of quiet in the debate. Like, they didn't have a lot of big moments. Yeah, Porter was a little better than, I think – I mean, I don't know if people are going to give her a second look. She kind of stalled. I mean, she, like Swalwell, had a bit of a national profile, [1:07:12] first term and didn't get a lot of traction. I mean, there were there were some pretty nasty viral videos about her that she caused. I mean, yeah, he's sort of jumping down the throat of staff, but we're just yelling at a staff member, yelling at a reporter, a couple other things. So some reputational issues. Newsom told you he wouldn't endorse unless it's a break class moment. [1:07:36] What's your read from talking to him, both his relative absence in this race and his seemingly inevitable 2028 campaign? Or his preference. His preference. I would say, okay, I have some, I think some informed wisdom on that. I mean, I think he is... [1:07:54] as underwhelmed as a lot of other people are, a lot of other Democrats are about this field. I think he hasn't been that shy about it privately. Even he told you, he said, I think the field is interesting. Yeah. This man has a great personality. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. You know what? I'm not. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So there's that. I mean, apparently, I mean, he, I think, was looking to have some kind of a Sarah breakout. I don't think he has issues.

[1:08:24] with Becerra. He doesn't like Mahan. I think he has reservations about Porter. I think he has reservations about Steyer and for a lot of reasons. But I think that he was really looking for a reason to to have someone like Becerra sort of like make his decision for him. So we'll see. I don't I don't know, though. I mean, I think he would love a real process of elimination pick. [1:08:54] most decisive guy in the world, but I do think that his indecision here is quite, or his, his, his, [1:09:00] hesitation here is sincere and I think it's reflective of a larger ambivalence among Democrats. He did endorse the lieutenant governor's race this week. He did. He did. So he can do it. It is allowed. And he has experience as a lieutenant governor. So it's your favorite weekend of the year. It is. Your Super Bowl. [1:09:19] The White House Correspondents. And Mardi Gras, the whole thing. I guess the only thing different about this year is... [1:09:26] Trump's going to be there at the dinner for the first time since... [1:09:29] 2011, first time as president? Yeah, that'll be interesting. What do you think, though? Has anything changed? Has the dinner regained any of its splendor from years ago? When are you getting to the grinder party? I haven't been invited to that. So here's the thing. Okay, full disclosure, I've known you guys a long time. I'm 60 years old now. [1:09:50] Spring chicken in Congress. You look great. Thanks. I feel great. You're 20 years younger than the median Democrat. That's true.

[1:09:59] Um... [1:10:00] I don't, I mean, I will do a Saturday night. First of all, now that I'm not at the New York Times anymore, I can go to the dinner. The Atlantic has, I think, two tables. Oh, yeah. I was going to ask about the Atlantic. I went last year. I think I went the year before. They asked if I wanted to go, and I wasn't sure I was allowed to say no, but I tried, and they accepted my answer. Although I will say, I don't know if this is mystique or luster or intrigue or whatever, but... [1:10:24] from a pure [1:10:27] voyeuristic point of view, I mean, I think Trump almost certainly has something planned. I mean, I think like the greatest mass arrestor. No, but some like a really red. No, I mean, it would not surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic, prepared something, not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the least bit gracious. I mean, to think about all the opportunities he's had to play that game. I mean, starting with the Al [1:10:57] Thank you. [1:10:57] I don't think he would have accepted this. I think part of him just thinks, all right, what a spectacle. I'll be in the middle of it. Who knows how many opportunities I'll have to do this. It'll be different. But I'd be shocked if he didn't have something antagonistic planned. And, I mean, the media's not organized. I don't know what they're going to do. But it'll be kind of a reality show, which is what he does.

[1:11:27] addition of the White House Correspondents Dinner that could be lost and that he could soil like he soiled other institutions around Washington. But I do think that, I mean, there could be some friction there that will be worth watching, and I'm kind of glad enough to be there for it. Don't you think it's going to be a problem when his plan runs headlong into those [1:11:47] First Amendment pins that the reporters are wearing? That'll do it, man. So when I was – can I tell the story? Should I tell the story? Now you have to. So when I went to college in the 80s, I graduated college in the 80s, University of Michigan, they wanted to give an honorary degree to Nelson Mandela. [1:12:04] And there was some regent or some rule, the Michigan regents or something, he couldn't be – if you can't be there in person to receive your honorary degree, you can't get your honorary degree. [1:12:17] had an excuse. [1:12:19] We all know what that was at the time. And there was an alternative. Those of us who were protesting that wore like a big button. And I wore, you can see on my graduation gown or my thing, it was a Nelson Mandela button. So that was my protest there. Okay. You can tell that story. I thought you were going to say you accepted the award on his behalf. I thought that's what I was going to say. Wouldn't that have been fun? Liberal reporter comes out pro-Mandela. Yeah, right? You know what? You'd be surprised. Resistance. No, so. What do you think about, I mean. [1:12:47] Trump has... [1:12:51] Investigative Reporters has... [1:12:53] trashed the press, has stomped over the First Amendment. His Secretary of Defense, who is a guest of the Paramount Corporation, has kicked the reporters out of the Pentagon. What do you like

[1:13:03] Talk to me about how the press thinks about going to that dinner in that context. Well, I think it's uncomfortable at best. I mean, look, I mean, the Atlantic is still going. And, I mean, I assume. You guys have been invited to some signal chain, so it's okay. That's right. I mean, everyone in the group chat gets a table. No. I mean, look, this week, I mean, like Sarah Kirkpatrick, my colleague, I mean, she wrote this Cash Patel story. They filed a lawsuit two days ago, which, I mean, [1:13:33] that's a little bit standard. I mean, like nasty story. It's a constitutional response. The constitutional response. Yes, correct. But I don't see how many, I mean, I, I don't know a lot of journalists who are excited about it any more than they would normally be. Now there's sort of like a sport around. You have to sort of, you know, roll your eyes at the whole thing. It's like, Oh, I'm above it, but my bosses are making it. And, and there, I mean, you can also get a lot of work done. I mean, [1:14:03] and you want to talk to people and stuff. But, no, but, I mean, I think the... [1:14:09] dissonance between what trump talks about what the administration has done and what the dinner is supposed to stand for kind of is pretty obvious i mean only to be highlighted when the wall street journal gets the reward for their epstein letter story that'll be an interesting scene right um i mean i do wonder about it i mean i was actually i still think there's a non-zero chance that he could pull out yeah um but who knows uh [1:14:33] 250 journalists, Dan Rather, Sam Donaldson, signed an open letter demanding that the White House Correspondents Association use the podium to condemn Trump by name and toast the First Amendment.

[1:14:44] You think there's any chance they do that? [1:14:46] I was going to say something snarky, but I would say no. I don't think there's a chance. Yeah, like, I saw it, and it's funny, because at first I'm like, well, that's not going to happen. But I'm like, what? [1:14:56] I could imagine a condemnation that is not... [1:15:01] so harsh and unfair that it, like I can imagine doing it in a thoughtful way. [1:15:08] Yeah, I can see that. But I don't, I mean. Who's the president? Of the Correspondent Association. Well, actually, it's Donald Trump. Marco Rubio is now the White House. I mean, the whole thing is, it's always been bizarre. It's more bizarre now. The best argument that the media organizations can make is the money goes to pay for scholarships for young journalists. Scholarships, yeah. [1:15:38] been in the White House press pool, maybe, but... [1:15:41] Yeah. The toast to the President of the United States is always – I mean, I don't care who the President is. It just strikes me as – [1:15:50] It's distasteful. Yeah, the whole thing. The toast is crazy. The toast is crazy. Imagining the toast tonight, tomorrow, whenever it is, Saturday night, it's crazy. It is. It's one thing to be there with him, which is like, you can debate that enough, but the actual toast is just, what are we doing? There are two reasons to go. I mean, one, the comedians can be good. No comedians show that, right? Mentalist. Mentalist. It's a mentalist. Forget that. The manosphere's mentalist, apparently. Yeah. And there are certain...

[1:16:16] moments when presidents can, you know, with good timing. I mean, the guy you worked for can can do well. I don't think Biden's talks were terribly good. Bush had his moments, I thought. Clinton had his moments. I don't know. I mean, but that's those days are long gone. [1:16:33] Last question for you. This town came out in 2013. [1:16:37] If you were writing the 2026 edition. [1:16:40] What's the opening scene? [1:16:43] Who's the central character? Opening scene... [1:16:47] Oh, man, you put me on the spot. Do you want me to do it for you? Yeah, please. You're at Butterworth's. [1:16:51] no that story's been done I thought I texted you about one there was a funeral there was another funeral there have been a lot of funerals because you opened this town I mean here's the thing wasn't it Carter's [1:17:08] Were you a carnage funeral? I've done a lot of... Okay, so here's the thing. Since that book came out... Or Cheney. The New York Times, I did do a Cheney piece. And I've been assigned a number of pieces. I remember one of the last pieces I did for the New York Times, I was kind of playing out the string, cleaning out my desk, and... [1:17:24] Elizabeth Bumiller, my boss, walked over to me and said, Hey, you know Bob Dole died. And the funerals at the Kennedy Center, or not the Kennedy Center, at the National Cathedral on Friday, you've got to cover it. So, I mean, there were several moments like that where I kind of became the funeral guy. That was during COVID, too. I remember, like, and it was a huge deal to wear a mask because you were in a cathedral. You were...

[1:17:49] packed with elderly people, you know, signs everywhere, wear a mask, wear a mask, DC rules, the whole thing. And I remember looking, I was sitting in the press area right above where the Senate was seated, where most of a lot of the sitting senators were. Every single one of them was wearing a mask, except for Ted Cruz, who was being completely ostentatious about it. And, you know, we're talking elderly people, you know, there's no vaccine yet, you know, right across the way. And I mean, it was a church, I mean, just the whole [1:18:18] thing and you know he probably got a shout out for it anyway um there the problem with i mean tim russert that was the thing though i mean the critique which seems very quaint now was that there was this one world one washington you know overly chummy world between the media and the money people and the lobbyists and the former people and the elected officials in the white house and congress and that was what was insidious at the time which of course in retrospect seems like a [1:18:48] The fact that Trent Lott and John Brough, a Democrat and a Republican, a Republican and a Democrat, would go into business together and make money, I mean, that was like a scandal. And, I mean, again, it's almost – I'm not embarrassed by it, but it just gives you a sense of how much time has passed. And the second book was – [1:19:07] suck-up culture, but it was really around Trump. The second term does feel different. I do think... [1:19:15] I think that [1:19:16] It's kind of running on two tracks now. It's suck-up culture around Trump, which is...

[1:19:22] orders of magnitude worse now. I mean, it's just, it's gone beyond cult level. It's parody. But there's also, so my book was called Thank You for Your Servitude. I don't know if I can talk about this, but I will anyway. Jacob Weisberg has a book coming out called Profiles in Cowardice, which I read like a, [1:19:40] part of it and it's a similar way. There's a lot of that and it's sort of of a piece to that. [1:19:47] I don't know. I mean, I do think that it's hard to think of what the merger of MAGA and... [1:19:55] sort of normie politics as we know it, whether, you know, independents, Democrats, some Republicans. Yeah. I mean, my sense, like I've been gone from the city for 10 years now, but my sense is that, [1:20:08] there is just less of the stuff that was at the center of your book, which is – [1:20:14] basically this idea that everyone [1:20:17] you know, [1:20:18] cosplayed rivals during the day, and then they went to the same cocktail parties at night. [1:20:23] And all hung out and it was like one party circuit. And it doesn't seem like that's necessarily still the case in the same way. Yeah, I don't see how it could. I honestly don't. I mean, I just have people who, I mean, I mean, you've all lived here. I mean, it was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships. [1:20:43] It's hard. Like, I mean, MAGA, just like it's a whole different dimension and they don't seem to want to have much to do with mainstream journalists, mainstream Democrats, you know, people who have been critical of President Trump and vice versa. Democratic institutions. Yeah. I mean, again, I mean, I always thought that and and other presidents have tried variations on this. But I mean, blowing off the White House Correspondents Dinner would would have been a great move for any president, not not just when Trump started doing it.

[1:21:13] You know, Obama, Bush, whoever would have gotten, you know, would have gotten credit for it in some way. It might have been some grudging. People would have complained, but they would have walked into your office. How disrespectful to the First Amendment. Yeah, that would have been terrible. [1:21:32] I mean, so Trump was obviously, he wasn't on to something, but I mean, he just sort of, he just trashed the whatever polite society existed here that was probably too cozy for its own good. But now he's trying to just run it because he went to the alfalfa, didn't he go to the alfalfa dinner? He did. Yeah. He did. Which makes the White House Correspondents' Dinner look like a Buffalo Wild Wings. Yeah. That's a good line. No, I've never actually been to the alfalfa dinner. I staffed Obama at it once. Really? [1:22:02] in the back room while he spoke. Because they didn't have food for the staff. So Reggie and I, Marvin and I, had to go to Burger King to eat. That's perfect. He probably had the best time of anyone. Mark Vibovich. Thank you so much. Thanks, guys. We'll come to our party. We'll toast you. We'll do a toast to the First Amendment specifically to Mark Vibovich. Bring your First Amendment pens. Oh, I totally will. Yeah, actually, you know what, though? There'll be like a kitty for us to put money in for the scholarships, right? Yes, of course. [1:22:32] Pod Save America scholarship. For young podcasters. [1:22:36] Just starting out. All right. Thanks, Liebervich. Buy the tight T-shirts. [1:22:41] Thanks to Mark Liebervich for coming on. Tommy will be back with an interview with Sarah Longwell on Sunday's PSA. And then Tommy and Love at Night will be back with a new episode in your feed on Tuesdays. Bye, everyone.

[1:22:53] If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricut.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. [1:23:02] you [1:23:02] Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. [1:23:25] Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. [1:23:29] Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Carol Pellaviv, David Tolles, and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [1:23:46] . [1:23:50] Thank you. [1:23:52] This is the Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast podcast. I'm Kelly Bowman, and I have been chasing the stories, meeting the people, and uncovering the little details that help you explore this place like a local. And the more time you spend here, you realize it's not just a beach. The shoreline is a launch pad for catching waves and watching rockets lift into space. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast, [1:24:20] And listen now.